Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.8 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $355 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns $-1,450 (-24.4%) on $5,950 risked, vs +$4,447 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $355 by Oct 16
$-1,450
-24.4% on $5,950 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,950
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$369.50
+18.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.14 / -53.83 / 95.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | +$1,545 | +$959 | +$385 | +$208 |
| $264 (-15%) | +$847 | +$80 | -$806 | -$1,345 |
| $279 (-10%) | +$405 | -$518 | -$1,699 | -$2,898 |
| $295 (-5%) | +$224 | -$809 | -$2,209 | -$4,450 |
| $304 (-2%) | +$239 | -$836 | -$2,312 | -$5,382 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$299 | -$793 | -$2,296 | -$5,897 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$398 | -$703 | -$2,213 | -$5,276 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$615 | -$483 | -$1,970 | -$4,344 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$1,148 | +$88 | -$1,282 | -$2,792 |
| $355 (+14%) โ target | +$1,764 | +$766 | -$452 | -$1,450 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$2,764 | +$1,872 | +$882 | +$314 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.