Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.96 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $330 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.4 ยท ฮ -0.18
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $315 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,644 (192.2%) on $856 risked, vs $-4,160 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 16.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $315 by Oct 16
+$1,644
+192.2% on $856 risked
Max Profit
+$1,644
If the stock โค $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$856
Net debit
Break-even
$346.44
-2.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-25.38 / -3.64 / 20.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$1,513 | +$1,580 | +$1,632 | +$1,644 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$1,302 | +$1,414 | +$1,562 | +$1,644 |
| $315 (-12%) โ target | +$1,075 | +$1,190 | +$1,388 | +$1,644 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$938 | +$1,042 | +$1,237 | +$1,644 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$472 | +$497 | +$548 | +$767 |
| $349 (-2%) | +$186 | +$154 | +$78 | -$303 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$8 | -$57 | -$198 | -$856 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$154 | -$243 | -$421 | -$856 |
| $374 (+5%) | -$361 | -$468 | -$649 | -$856 |
| $392 (+10%) | -$606 | -$700 | -$812 | -$856 |
| $410 (+15%) | -$743 | -$803 | -$850 | -$856 |
| $428 (+20%) | -$810 | -$841 | -$855 | -$856 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.