Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $375 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$440 (1.4%) on $-440 credit (max loss $32,560), vs +$1,840 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$3,946 | -$3,936 | -$3,961 | -$4,032 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$2,463 | -$2,357 | -$2,251 | -$2,249 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,288 | -$1,099 | -$838 | -$466 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$476 | -$271 | +$13 | +$440 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$151 | +$31 | +$257 | +$440 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | +$167 | +$345 | +$440 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$131 | +$263 | +$393 | +$440 |
| $375 (+5%) โ target | +$265 | +$356 | +$427 | +$440 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$372 | +$417 | +$439 | +$440 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$417 | +$435 | +$440 | +$440 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$433 | +$439 | +$440 | +$440 |