Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $356.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.92 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $385 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$3,432 (9.8%) on $35,068 risked, vs +$2,840 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $385 by Oct 16
+$3,432
+9.8% on $35,068 risked
Max Profit
+$3,432
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,068
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$350.68
-1.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.89 / 12.23 / -46.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$6,543 | -$6,540 | -$6,540 | -$6,540 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$4,774 | -$4,760 | -$4,757 | -$4,757 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$3,048 | -$2,997 | -$2,975 | -$2,974 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,427 | -$1,300 | -$1,208 | -$1,191 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$541 | -$356 | -$181 | -$121 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$226 | +$468 | +$592 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$497 | +$760 | +$1,070 | +$1,305 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,151 | +$1,457 | +$1,851 | +$2,375 |
| $385 (+8%) โ target | +$1,685 | +$2,011 | +$2,445 | +$3,432 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$1,988 | +$2,315 | +$2,745 | +$3,432 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$2,536 | +$2,825 | +$3,164 | +$3,432 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$2,857 | +$3,083 | +$3,303 | +$3,432 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.