Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.28 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $340 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,000 (105.4%) on $948 risked, vs $-1,660 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 22.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $340 by Oct 16
+$1,000
+105.4% on $948 risked
Max Profit
+$963
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$948
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$358.50
+0.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.4 / 1.45 / 23.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$426 | +$431 | +$419 | +$403 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$426 | +$461 | +$478 | +$434 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$364 | +$436 | +$536 | +$570 |
| $340 (-5%) โ target | +$196 | +$272 | +$409 | +$1,000 |
| $349 (-2%) | +$78 | +$135 | +$237 | +$430 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | +$17 | +$76 | +$81 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$125 | -$109 | -$97 | -$201 |
| $374 (+5%) | -$280 | -$295 | -$343 | -$509 |
| $392 (+10%) | -$511 | -$561 | -$652 | -$791 |
| $410 (+15%) | -$687 | -$744 | -$822 | -$901 |
| $428 (+20%) | -$804 | -$850 | -$900 | -$936 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.