Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $400 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$2,800 (164.7%) on $1,700 risked, vs +$4,340 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 13.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $400 by Oct 16
+$2,800
+164.7% on $1,700 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,700
Premium paid
Break-even
$372.00
+4.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.39 / -15.47 / 55.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$1,672 | -$1,694 | -$1,700 | -$1,700 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$1,583 | -$1,656 | -$1,696 | -$1,700 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,339 | -$1,503 | -$1,653 | -$1,700 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$835 | -$1,093 | -$1,409 | -$1,700 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$375 | -$668 | -$1,054 | -$1,700 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$302 | -$703 | -$1,540 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$428 | +$128 | -$262 | -$827 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,163 | +$884 | +$548 | +$243 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$2,588 | +$2,371 | +$2,155 | +$2,026 |
| $400 (+12%) โ target | +$3,266 | +$3,078 | +$2,904 | +$2,800 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$4,189 | +$4,033 | +$3,899 | +$3,809 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$5,889 | +$5,774 | +$5,676 | +$5,592 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.