Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.96 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $315 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$2,704 (208.7%) on $1,296 risked, vs $-4,160 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 17.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $315 by Oct 16
+$2,704
+208.7% on $1,296 risked
Max Profit
+$34,204
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,296
Premium paid
Break-even
$342.04
-4.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.61 / -11.13 / 55.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$5,459 | +$5,516 | +$5,593 | +$5,676 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$3,765 | +$3,771 | +$3,814 | +$3,893 |
| $315 (-12%) โ target | +$2,715 | +$2,663 | +$2,643 | +$2,704 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$2,226 | +$2,141 | +$2,074 | +$2,110 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$948 | +$768 | +$535 | +$327 |
| $349 (-2%) | +$338 | +$123 | -$180 | -$743 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$224 | -$543 | -$1,296 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$285 | -$506 | -$814 | -$1,296 |
| $374 (+5%) | -$621 | -$821 | -$1,075 | -$1,296 |
| $392 (+10%) | -$978 | -$1,117 | -$1,251 | -$1,296 |
| $410 (+15%) | -$1,160 | -$1,238 | -$1,289 | -$1,296 |
| $428 (+20%) | -$1,243 | -$1,280 | -$1,295 | -$1,296 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.