Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $356.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $340 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $390 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$2,660 (7.3%) on $36,340 risked, vs +$3,340 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $390 by Oct 16
+$2,660
+7.3% on $36,340 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,340
Put floors you at $340
Break-even
$363.40
+1.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.7 / -9.69 / 46.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$2,498 | -$2,474 | -$2,418 | -$2,340 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$2,307 | -$2,364 | -$2,394 | -$2,340 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,870 | -$2,025 | -$2,217 | -$2,340 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,097 | -$1,309 | -$1,612 | -$2,340 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$465 | -$675 | -$966 | -$1,393 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$22 | -$175 | -$430 | -$680 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$554 | +$379 | +$170 | +$33 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,426 | +$1,289 | +$1,153 | +$1,103 |
| $390 (+9%) โ target | +$2,810 | +$2,727 | +$2,669 | +$2,660 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$4,719 | +$4,684 | +$4,670 | +$4,669 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$6,469 | +$6,455 | +$6,452 | +$6,452 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.