Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.96 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $410 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$2,505 (83.6%) on $2,995 risked, vs +$5,340 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 5.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $410 by Oct 16
+$2,505
+83.6% on $2,995 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,995
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$384.95
+7.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
16%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.78 / -26.6 / 110.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$3,787 | +$3,822 | +$3,893 | +$3,976 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$2,182 | +$2,115 | +$2,117 | +$2,193 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$887 | +$638 | +$422 | +$410 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$113 | -$325 | -$874 | -$1,373 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$38 | -$545 | -$1,234 | -$2,443 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$526 | -$1,246 | -$2,836 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$143 | -$378 | -$1,076 | -$2,123 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$542 | +$64 | -$527 | -$1,053 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$1,610 | +$1,255 | +$904 | +$730 |
| $410 (+15%) โ target | +$3,021 | +$2,786 | +$2,600 | +$2,504 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$4,646 | +$4,494 | +$4,380 | +$4,296 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.