Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.21 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $230 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.05 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $220 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$984 (96.9%) on $1,016 risked, vs $-3,101 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 7.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $220 by Oct 16
+$984
+96.9% on $1,016 risked
Max Profit
+$984
If the stock โค $230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,016
Net debit
Break-even
$239.84
-4.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.49 / -1.51 / 1.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | +$504 | +$569 | +$706 | +$984 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$371 | +$416 | +$525 | +$984 |
| $220 (-12%) โ target | +$298 | +$329 | +$412 | +$984 |
| $226 (-10%) | +$232 | +$250 | +$305 | +$984 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$92 | +$80 | +$67 | +$138 |
| $246 (-2%) | +$9 | -$20 | -$75 | -$615 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$45 | -$86 | -$167 | -$1,016 |
| $256 (+2%) | -$98 | -$149 | -$255 | -$1,016 |
| $264 (+5%) | -$174 | -$241 | -$377 | -$1,016 |
| $276 (+10%) | -$294 | -$381 | -$555 | -$1,016 |
| $289 (+15%) | -$402 | -$504 | -$695 | -$1,016 |
| $301 (+20%) | -$499 | -$609 | -$800 | -$1,016 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.