Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.32 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $270 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.18 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $280 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,286 (180.1%) on $714 risked, vs +$2,899 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 15.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $280 by Oct 16
+$1,286
+180.1% on $714 risked
Max Profit
+$1,286
If the stock โฅ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$714
Net debit
Break-even
$257.14
+2.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.74 / 0.03 / -1.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$396 | -$468 | -$595 | -$714 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$287 | -$352 | -$487 | -$714 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$167 | -$217 | -$336 | -$714 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$40 | -$68 | -$145 | -$714 |
| $246 (-2%) | +$37 | +$26 | -$19 | -$714 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | +$89 | +$89 | +$69 | -$613 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$141 | +$152 | +$158 | -$111 |
| $264 (+5%) | +$218 | +$245 | +$290 | +$642 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$342 | +$396 | +$500 | +$1,286 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$379 | +$440 | +$561 | +$1,286 |
| $289 (+15%) | +$459 | +$536 | +$687 | +$1,286 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$567 | +$662 | +$844 | +$1,286 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.