Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $265 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$2,205 (10.6%) on $-2,205 credit (max loss $20,795), vs +$1,399 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$1,933 | -$1,578 | -$1,125 | -$714 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,215 | -$807 | -$254 | +$541 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$595 | -$155 | +$457 | +$1,796 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$68 | +$383 | +$1,008 | +$2,205 |
| $246 (-2%) | +$207 | +$655 | +$1,268 | +$2,205 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | +$374 | +$818 | +$1,414 | +$2,205 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$529 | +$966 | +$1,541 | +$2,205 |
| $265 (+6%) โ target | +$777 | +$1,197 | +$1,726 | +$2,205 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$1,039 | +$1,430 | +$1,892 | +$2,205 |
| $289 (+15%) | +$1,283 | +$1,635 | +$2,017 | +$2,205 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$1,479 | +$1,790 | +$2,094 | +$2,205 |