Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MRVL
$251.01
๐ŸŸข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ€” LOW (-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $240 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

56d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.15 ยท ฮ” -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $240 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.62 ยท ฮ” -0.41
P&L at Expiry Now $251 Target $240 $176 $251 $326
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MRVL hits $240 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,601 (138.8%) on $1,153 risked, vs $-1,101 (-4.4%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 31.5ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MRVL hits $240 by Oct 16
+$1,601
+138.8% on $1,153 risked
Max Profit
+$1,587
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$745
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$282.39
+12.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-3.09 / 6.2 / 10.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MRVL Price Today Sep 8 Sep 27 Oct 16 (exp)
$201 (-20%) +$130 +$208 +$309 +$245
$213 (-15%) +$152 +$255 +$423 +$562
$226 (-10%) +$154 +$272 +$487 +$986
$240 (-4%) โ† target +$132 +$254 +$486 +$1,597
$246 (-2%) +$115 +$235 +$462 +$1,301
$251 (0%) โ† spot +$98 +$214 +$432 +$1,072
$256 (+2%) +$79 +$190 +$394 +$860
$264 (+5%) +$46 +$146 +$323 +$572
$276 (+10%) -$19 +$59 +$179 +$167
$289 (+15%) -$92 -$41 +$16 -$154
$301 (+20%) -$171 -$147 -$150 -$406
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.