Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.32 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $280 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$168 (5.9%) on $2,832 risked, vs +$2,899 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $280 by Oct 16
+$168
+5.9% on $2,832 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,832
Premium paid
Break-even
$278.32
+10.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.84 / -27.9 / 38.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$1,920 | -$2,266 | -$2,640 | -$2,832 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,517 | -$1,935 | -$2,438 | -$2,832 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$1,022 | -$1,498 | -$2,114 | -$2,832 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$434 | -$951 | -$1,648 | -$2,832 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$38 | -$571 | -$1,296 | -$2,832 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | +$243 | -$297 | -$1,032 | -$2,731 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$538 | -$6 | -$745 | -$2,229 |
| $264 (+5%) | +$1,003 | +$459 | -$274 | -$1,476 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$1,839 | +$1,305 | +$612 | -$221 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$2,112 | +$1,585 | +$909 | +$168 |
| $289 (+15%) | +$2,742 | +$2,233 | +$1,602 | +$1,034 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$3,705 | +$3,228 | +$2,674 | +$2,289 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.