Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.21 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $220 by Oct 16: the long put returns $-221 (-6.9%) on $3,221 risked, vs $-3,101 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $220 by Oct 16
$-221
-6.9% on $3,221 risked
Max Profit
+$21,779
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,221
Premium paid
Break-even
$217.79
-13.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.46 / -25.44 / 38.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | +$2,438 | +$2,147 | +$1,831 | +$1,698 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$1,586 | +$1,223 | +$779 | +$443 |
| $220 (-12%) โ target | +$1,172 | +$777 | +$270 | -$221 |
| $226 (-10%) | +$826 | +$406 | -$152 | -$812 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$159 | -$303 | -$941 | -$2,067 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$198 | -$676 | -$1,343 | -$2,820 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$419 | -$904 | -$1,581 | -$3,221 |
| $256 (+2%) | -$626 | -$1,115 | -$1,796 | -$3,221 |
| $264 (+5%) | -$914 | -$1,403 | -$2,077 | -$3,221 |
| $276 (+10%) | -$1,333 | -$1,811 | -$2,447 | -$3,221 |
| $289 (+15%) | -$1,685 | -$2,139 | -$2,711 | -$3,221 |
| $301 (+20%) | -$1,977 | -$2,399 | -$2,894 | -$3,221 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.