Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $251.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.62 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $275 by Oct 16: the protective put returns $-363 (-1.3%) on $27,863 risked, vs +$2,399 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $275 by Oct 16
$-363
-1.3% on $27,863 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,863
Put floors you at $240
Break-even
$278.63
+11.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.72 / -25.16 / 37.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$2,905 | -$3,231 | -$3,617 | -$3,863 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$2,438 | -$2,827 | -$3,334 | -$3,863 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$1,875 | -$2,310 | -$2,908 | -$3,863 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$1,218 | -$1,680 | -$2,326 | -$3,863 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$781 | -$1,251 | -$1,904 | -$3,264 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$473 | -$943 | -$1,594 | -$2,762 |
| $256 (+2%) | -$152 | -$621 | -$1,261 | -$2,260 |
| $264 (+5%) | +$352 | -$109 | -$725 | -$1,507 |
| $275 (+10%) โ target | +$1,167 | +$726 | +$165 | -$363 |
| $289 (+15%) | +$2,208 | +$1,802 | +$1,323 | +$1,003 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$3,220 | +$2,853 | +$2,455 | +$2,258 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.