Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 74.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.32 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $32.21 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $290 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns $-2,053 (-33.9%) on $6,053 risked, vs +$3,899 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $290 by Oct 16
$-2,053
-33.9% on $6,053 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$6,053
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$310.53
+23.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.38 / -53.34 / 76.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | +$517 | -$120 | -$809 | -$1,134 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$68 | -$711 | -$1,659 | -$2,389 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$195 | -$1,092 | -$2,266 | -$3,644 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$274 | -$1,254 | -$2,589 | -$4,899 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$235 | -$1,247 | -$2,639 | -$5,652 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$175 | -$1,200 | -$2,613 | -$5,952 |
| $256 (+2%) | -$88 | -$1,121 | -$2,541 | -$5,450 |
| $264 (+5%) | +$90 | -$945 | -$2,351 | -$4,697 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$506 | -$506 | -$1,835 | -$3,442 |
| $290 (+16%) โ target | +$1,124 | +$166 | -$1,021 | -$2,053 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$1,728 | +$829 | -$220 | -$932 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.