Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $860 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $104.94 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $900 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $67.3 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $860 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$3,236 (86.0%) on $3,764 risked, vs $-11,433 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $860. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $860 by Oct 16
+$3,236
+86.0% on $3,764 risked
Max Profit
+$3,236
If the stock โค $900 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,764
Net debit
Break-even
$932.36
-4.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.86 / -7.41 / 6.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | +$1,618 | +$1,857 | +$2,348 | +$3,236 |
| $828 (-15%) | +$1,142 | +$1,315 | +$1,720 | +$3,236 |
| $860 (-12%) โ target | +$816 | +$930 | +$1,223 | +$3,236 |
| $877 (-10%) | +$641 | +$719 | +$939 | +$3,236 |
| $926 (-5%) | +$134 | +$105 | +$82 | +$675 |
| $955 (-2%) | -$165 | -$259 | -$434 | -$2,248 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | -$361 | -$497 | -$767 | -$3,764 |
| $994 (+2%) | -$552 | -$728 | -$1,086 | -$3,764 |
| $1023 (+5%) | -$830 | -$1,061 | -$1,533 | -$3,764 |
| $1072 (+10%) | -$1,263 | -$1,568 | -$2,174 | -$3,764 |
| $1120 (+15%) | -$1,654 | -$2,011 | -$2,675 | -$3,764 |
| $1169 (+20%) | -$2,000 | -$2,386 | -$3,045 | -$3,764 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.