Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1050 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $974.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1050 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $80.0 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1050 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$15,567 (17.4%) on $89,433 risked, vs +$7,567 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1050. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1050 by Oct 16
+$15,567
+17.4% on $89,433 risked
Max Profit
+$15,567
If the stock โฅ $1050 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$89,433
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$894.33
-8.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.02 / 100.93 / -156.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | -$13,544 | -$12,565 | -$11,714 | -$11,487 |
| $828 (-15%) | -$9,751 | -$8,471 | -$7,167 | -$6,615 |
| $877 (-10%) | -$6,278 | -$4,708 | -$2,905 | -$1,743 |
| $926 (-5%) | -$3,144 | -$1,322 | +$960 | +$3,128 |
| $955 (-2%) | -$1,428 | +$520 | +$3,047 | +$6,051 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | -$353 | +$1,666 | +$4,334 | +$8,000 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$668 | +$2,747 | +$5,532 | +$9,949 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$2,100 | +$4,249 | +$7,163 | +$12,872 |
| $1050 (+8%) โ target | +$3,317 | +$5,508 | +$8,489 | +$15,567 |
| $1072 (+10%) | +$4,230 | +$6,439 | +$9,440 | +$15,567 |
| $1120 (+15%) | +$6,060 | +$8,265 | +$11,202 | +$15,567 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$7,617 | +$9,761 | +$12,514 | +$15,567 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.