Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $930 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $970 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $130.58 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $930 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $85.15 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $930 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$5,386 (118.6%) on $4,543 risked, vs $-4,433 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 26.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $930. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $930 by Oct 16
+$5,386
+118.6% on $4,543 risked
Max Profit
+$5,361
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$3,426
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$1064.00
+9.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.51 / 15.8 / 42.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | +$437 | +$728 | +$1,095 | +$829 |
| $828 (-15%) | +$511 | +$898 | +$1,522 | +$2,010 |
| $877 (-10%) | +$503 | +$949 | +$1,755 | +$3,619 |
| $930 (-5%) โ target | +$402 | +$861 | +$1,729 | +$5,889 |
| $955 (-2%) | +$324 | +$771 | +$1,615 | +$4,651 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | +$251 | +$681 | +$1,485 | +$3,760 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$168 | +$575 | +$1,322 | +$2,937 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$26 | +$390 | +$1,026 | +$1,824 |
| $1072 (+10%) | -$246 | +$27 | +$433 | +$271 |
| $1120 (+15%) | -$551 | -$383 | -$224 | -$951 |
| $1169 (+20%) | -$874 | -$814 | -$885 | -$1,895 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.