Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1090 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $107.61 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1090 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$1,239 (11.5%) on $10,761 risked, vs +$11,567 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1090. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1090 by Oct 16
+$1,239
+11.5% on $10,761 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$10,761
Premium paid
Break-even
$1077.61
+10.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.09 / -103.78 / 149.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | -$7,485 | -$8,754 | -$10,105 | -$10,761 |
| $828 (-15%) | -$5,965 | -$7,514 | -$9,364 | -$10,761 |
| $877 (-10%) | -$4,075 | -$5,854 | -$8,148 | -$10,761 |
| $926 (-5%) | -$1,815 | -$3,756 | -$6,367 | -$10,761 |
| $955 (-2%) | -$287 | -$2,289 | -$5,011 | -$10,761 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | +$802 | -$1,226 | -$3,987 | -$10,328 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$1,944 | -$98 | -$2,870 | -$8,379 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$3,753 | +$1,710 | -$1,031 | -$5,456 |
| $1072 (+10%) | +$7,008 | +$5,014 | +$2,432 | -$585 |
| $1090 (+12%) โ target | +$8,299 | +$6,336 | +$3,842 | +$1,239 |
| $1120 (+15%) | +$10,534 | +$8,639 | +$6,313 | +$4,287 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$14,297 | +$12,534 | +$10,513 | +$9,159 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.