Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $860 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $104.94 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $860 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$506 (4.8%) on $10,494 risked, vs $-11,433 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $860. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $860 by Oct 16
+$506
+4.8% on $10,494 risked
Max Profit
+$86,506
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$10,494
Premium paid
Break-even
$865.06
-11.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.55 / -87.76 / 149.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | +$11,169 | +$10,113 | +$8,989 | +$8,560 |
| $828 (-15%) | +$7,817 | +$6,482 | +$4,858 | +$3,688 |
| $860 (-12%) โ target | +$5,827 | +$4,335 | +$2,410 | +$506 |
| $877 (-10%) | +$4,835 | +$3,270 | +$1,202 | -$1,184 |
| $926 (-5%) | +$2,223 | +$496 | -$1,888 | -$6,055 |
| $955 (-2%) | +$829 | -$959 | -$3,455 | -$8,978 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | -$31 | -$1,846 | -$4,380 | -$10,494 |
| $994 (+2%) | -$838 | -$2,667 | -$5,212 | -$10,494 |
| $1023 (+5%) | -$1,952 | -$3,781 | -$6,296 | -$10,494 |
| $1072 (+10%) | -$3,568 | -$5,348 | -$7,703 | -$10,494 |
| $1120 (+15%) | -$4,914 | -$6,596 | -$8,695 | -$10,494 |
| $1169 (+20%) | -$6,024 | -$7,572 | -$9,367 | -$10,494 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.