Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1090 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $974.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1090 by Oct 16: the long stock returns +$11,567 (11.9%) on $97,433 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Oct 16.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1090 by Oct 16
+$11,567
+11.9% on $97,433 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$97,433
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$974.33
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 20 | Oct 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | -$19,487 | -$19,487 | -$19,487 |
| $828 (-15%) | -$14,615 | -$14,615 | -$14,615 |
| $877 (-10%) | -$9,743 | -$9,743 | -$9,743 |
| $926 (-5%) | -$4,872 | -$4,872 | -$4,872 |
| $955 (-2%) | -$1,949 | -$1,949 | -$1,949 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$1,949 | +$1,949 | +$1,949 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$4,872 | +$4,872 | +$4,872 |
| $1072 (+10%) | +$9,743 | +$9,743 | +$9,743 |
| $1090 (+12%) โ target | +$11,567 | +$11,567 | +$11,567 |
| $1120 (+15%) | +$14,615 | +$14,615 | +$14,615 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$19,487 | +$19,487 | +$19,487 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.