Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1070 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $974.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $930 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $85.15 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1070 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$1,052 (1.0%) on $105,948 risked, vs +$9,567 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1070. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1070 by Oct 16
+$1,052
+1.0% on $105,948 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$12,948
Put floors you at $930
Break-even
$1059.48
+8.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.64 / -83.99 / 146.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | -$9,482 | -$10,682 | -$12,091 | -$12,948 |
| $828 (-15%) | -$7,700 | -$9,146 | -$11,024 | -$12,948 |
| $877 (-10%) | -$5,531 | -$7,157 | -$9,388 | -$12,948 |
| $926 (-5%) | -$2,985 | -$4,715 | -$7,131 | -$12,948 |
| $955 (-2%) | -$1,286 | -$3,040 | -$5,481 | -$10,464 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | -$86 | -$1,841 | -$4,264 | -$8,515 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$1,166 | -$580 | -$2,961 | -$6,566 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$3,135 | +$1,421 | -$856 | -$3,643 |
| $1070 (+10%) โ target | +$6,510 | +$4,887 | +$2,849 | +$1,052 |
| $1120 (+15%) | +$10,396 | +$8,911 | +$7,186 | +$6,100 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$14,363 | +$13,032 | +$11,621 | +$10,972 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.