Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1120 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $107.61 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $104.94 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1120 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns $-6,255 (-29.4%) on $21,255 risked, vs +$14,567 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1120 by Oct 16
$-6,255
-29.4% on $21,255 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$21,255
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$1182.55
+21.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.53 / -191.54 / 299.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | +$3,685 | +$1,359 | -$1,116 | -$2,201 |
| $828 (-15%) | +$1,852 | -$1,031 | -$4,505 | -$7,073 |
| $877 (-10%) | +$760 | -$2,583 | -$6,945 | -$11,945 |
| $926 (-5%) | +$408 | -$3,260 | -$8,255 | -$16,816 |
| $955 (-2%) | +$542 | -$3,248 | -$8,465 | -$19,739 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | +$771 | -$3,072 | -$8,367 | -$20,822 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$1,106 | -$2,765 | -$8,083 | -$18,873 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$1,802 | -$2,071 | -$7,327 | -$15,950 |
| $1072 (+10%) | +$3,440 | -$334 | -$5,271 | -$11,079 |
| $1120 (+15%) โ target | +$5,596 | +$2,017 | -$2,415 | -$6,255 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$8,273 | +$4,963 | +$1,146 | -$1,335 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.