Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $63 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.65 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $66 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.4 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $63 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$375 (166.7%) on $225 risked, vs $-871 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $63. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $63 by Sep 18
+$375
+166.7% on $225 risked
Max Profit
+$375
If the stock โค $66 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$225
Net debit
Break-even
$69.75
-2.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-25.07 / -0.69 / 1.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$312 | +$336 | +$364 | +$375 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$257 | +$285 | +$328 | +$375 |
| $63 (-12%) โ target | +$217 | +$242 | +$286 | +$375 |
| $65 (-10%) | +$184 | +$204 | +$243 | +$375 |
| $68 (-5%) | +$101 | +$104 | +$113 | +$163 |
| $70 (-2%) | +$50 | +$43 | +$28 | -$53 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$18 | +$4 | -$24 | -$196 |
| $73 (+2%) | -$12 | -$32 | -$71 | -$225 |
| $75 (+5%) | -$54 | -$80 | -$128 | -$225 |
| $79 (+10%) | -$112 | -$142 | -$186 | -$225 |
| $82 (+15%) | -$154 | -$181 | -$212 | -$225 |
| $86 (+20%) | -$183 | -$204 | -$221 | -$225 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.