Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $80 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.75 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $77 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.86 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$311 (164.6%) on $189 risked, vs +$829 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $80. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18
+$311
+164.6% on $189 risked
Max Profit
+$311
If the stock โฅ $77 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$189
Net debit
Break-even
$73.89
+3.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
19.97 / -0.56 / 0.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$172 | -$182 | -$188 | -$189 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$149 | -$167 | -$184 | -$189 |
| $65 (-10%) | -$111 | -$134 | -$166 | -$189 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$60 | -$79 | -$117 | -$189 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$23 | -$37 | -$67 | -$189 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$3 | -$7 | -$28 | -$189 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$29 | +$25 | +$15 | -$75 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$68 | +$73 | +$82 | +$141 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$129 | +$147 | +$181 | +$311 |
| $80 (+12%) โ target | +$147 | +$167 | +$206 | +$311 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$182 | +$207 | +$249 | +$311 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$224 | +$249 | +$286 | +$311 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.