Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
NFLX
$71.71
๐ŸŸข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ€” LOW (-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $75 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

48d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $66 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.4 ยท ฮ” -0.23
P&L at Expiry Now $72 Target $75 $50 $72 $93
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If NFLX hits $75 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$140 (2.2%) on $-140 credit (max loss $6,460), vs +$329 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 0.5ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $75. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if NFLX hits $75 by Sep 18
+$140
+2.2% on $6,460 max loss
Max Profit
+$140
If the stock โ‰ฅ $66 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$6,460
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$64.60
-9.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
23.05 / 2.71 / -8.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

NFLX Price Today Aug 17 Sep 2 Sep 18 (exp)
$57 (-20%) -$769 -$742 -$721 -$723
$61 (-15%) -$505 -$457 -$403 -$365
$65 (-10%) -$292 -$231 -$151 -$6
$68 (-5%) -$134 -$71 +$11 +$140
$70 (-2%) -$62 -$4 +$68 +$140
$72 (0%) โ† spot -$24 +$31 +$93 +$140
$73 (+2%) +$8 +$58 +$111 +$140
$75 (+5%) โ† target +$42 +$84 +$125 +$140
$79 (+10%) +$89 +$117 +$137 +$140
$82 (+15%) +$114 +$131 +$139 +$140
$86 (+20%) +$127 +$136 +$140 +$140
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.