Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $77 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $71.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $77 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.86 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $77 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$715 (10.2%) on $6,985 risked, vs +$529 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $77. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $77 by Sep 18
+$715
+10.2% on $6,985 risked
Max Profit
+$715
If the stock โฅ $77 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$6,985
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$69.85
-2.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.47 / 3.66 / -9.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$1,256 | -$1,250 | -$1,248 | -$1,248 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$915 | -$898 | -$890 | -$890 |
| $65 (-10%) | -$591 | -$558 | -$535 | -$531 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$298 | -$244 | -$193 | -$173 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$139 | -$73 | -$2 | +$43 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | -$43 | +$30 | +$115 | +$186 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$46 | +$125 | +$222 | +$329 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$166 | +$252 | +$361 | +$545 |
| $77 (+7%) โ target | +$248 | +$337 | +$450 | +$715 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$328 | +$416 | +$529 | +$715 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$447 | +$529 | +$626 | +$715 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$530 | +$600 | +$672 | +$715 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.