Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $68 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.01 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $68 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.91 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $68 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$222 (71.5%) on $310 risked, vs $-371 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $68 by Sep 18
+$222
+71.5% on $310 risked
Max Profit
+$220
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$307
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$71.90
+0.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.52 / 0.17 / 4.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$71 | +$79 | +$81 | +$71 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$63 | +$78 | +$95 | +$88 |
| $65 (-10%) | +$41 | +$62 | +$95 | +$133 |
| $68 (-5%) โ target | +$8 | +$28 | +$63 | +$222 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$20 | -$4 | +$23 | +$83 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | -$39 | -$27 | -$8 | +$9 |
| $73 (+2%) | -$59 | -$51 | -$41 | -$55 |
| $75 (+5%) | -$89 | -$89 | -$92 | -$132 |
| $79 (+10%) | -$139 | -$148 | -$169 | -$219 |
| $82 (+15%) | -$183 | -$199 | -$226 | -$268 |
| $86 (+20%) | -$219 | -$238 | -$263 | -$292 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.