Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $80 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.75 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$425 (113.3%) on $375 risked, vs +$829 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 9.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $80. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18
+$425
+113.3% on $375 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$375
Premium paid
Break-even
$75.75
+5.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.5 / -4.22 / 10.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$349 | -$366 | -$374 | -$375 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$310 | -$345 | -$370 | -$375 |
| $65 (-10%) | -$238 | -$293 | -$348 | -$375 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$121 | -$194 | -$282 | -$375 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$27 | -$107 | -$208 | -$375 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$46 | -$37 | -$143 | -$375 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$126 | +$43 | -$63 | -$261 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$261 | +$180 | +$80 | -$45 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$519 | +$448 | +$369 | +$313 |
| $80 (+12%) โ target | +$607 | +$540 | +$469 | +$425 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$811 | +$754 | +$700 | +$672 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$1,128 | +$1,083 | +$1,048 | +$1,030 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.