Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $63 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.65 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $63 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$535 (146.6%) on $365 risked, vs $-871 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 12.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $63. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $63 by Sep 18
+$535
+146.6% on $365 risked
Max Profit
+$6,835
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$365
Premium paid
Break-even
$68.35
-4.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.12 / -3.4 / 10.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$1,081 | +$1,078 | +$1,084 | +$1,098 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$762 | +$742 | +$731 | +$740 |
| $63 (-12%) โ target | +$594 | +$562 | +$535 | +$535 |
| $65 (-10%) | +$476 | +$435 | +$394 | +$381 |
| $68 (-5%) | +$235 | +$176 | +$102 | +$23 |
| $70 (-2%) | +$113 | +$47 | -$40 | -$193 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$42 | -$26 | -$118 | -$336 |
| $73 (+2%) | -$20 | -$90 | -$182 | -$365 |
| $75 (+5%) | -$101 | -$168 | -$254 | -$365 |
| $79 (+10%) | -$202 | -$259 | -$323 | -$365 |
| $82 (+15%) | -$268 | -$312 | -$352 | -$365 |
| $86 (+20%) | -$310 | -$340 | -$361 | -$365 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.