Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $80 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $71.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$829 (11.6%) on $7,171 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $80 by Sep 18
+$829
+11.6% on $7,171 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$7,171
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$71.71
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 31 | Sep 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$1,434 | -$1,434 | -$1,434 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$1,076 | -$1,076 | -$1,076 |
| $65 (-10%) | -$717 | -$717 | -$717 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$359 | -$359 | -$359 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$143 | -$143 | -$143 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$143 | +$143 | +$143 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$359 | +$359 | +$359 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$717 | +$717 | +$717 |
| $80 (+12%) โ target | +$829 | +$829 | +$829 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$1,076 | +$1,076 | +$1,076 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$1,434 | +$1,434 | +$1,434 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.