Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $79 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $71.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $68 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.91 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $79 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$538 (7.3%) on $7,362 risked, vs +$729 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $79. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $79 by Sep 18
+$538
+7.3% on $7,362 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$562
Put floors you at $68
Break-even
$73.62
+2.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.31 / -3.12 / 8.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$544 | -$562 | -$571 | -$562 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$472 | -$511 | -$550 | -$562 |
| $65 (-10%) | -$354 | -$411 | -$482 | -$562 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$183 | -$248 | -$335 | -$550 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$55 | -$120 | -$204 | -$334 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$39 | -$23 | -$102 | -$191 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$140 | +$82 | +$12 | -$48 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$305 | +$254 | +$199 | +$168 |
| $79 (+10%) โ target | +$614 | +$577 | +$546 | +$538 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$927 | +$903 | +$887 | +$885 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$1,265 | +$1,250 | +$1,243 | +$1,243 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.