Target Price Playground
NFLX
$71.71
๐ข
NFLX IV: 38.9% โ LOW
(-31.3% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $82 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.75 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.65 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $82 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$260 (35.1%) on $740 risked, vs +$1,029 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $7,171. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $82. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $82 by Sep 18
+$260
+35.1% on $740 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$740
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$64.60
-9.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.38 / -7.62 / 20.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | Aug 17 | Sep 2 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$732 | +$712 | +$710 | +$723 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$452 | +$397 | +$361 | +$365 |
| $65 (-10%) | +$238 | +$142 | +$46 | +$6 |
| $68 (-5%) | +$114 | -$19 | -$181 | -$352 |
| $70 (-2%) | +$86 | -$60 | -$249 | -$568 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$88 | -$63 | -$260 | -$711 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$106 | -$47 | -$245 | -$626 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$160 | +$12 | -$174 | -$410 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$317 | +$189 | +$46 | -$52 |
| $82 (+14%) โ target | +$510 | +$405 | +$306 | +$260 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$818 | +$743 | +$687 | +$665 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.