Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QCOM hits $170 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$600 (4.2%) on $-600 credit (max loss $14,400), vs +$926 (5.8%) for 100 shares on $16,074. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QCOM is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QCOM Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $129 (-20%) | -$1,779 | -$1,676 | -$1,569 | -$1,541 |
| $137 (-15%) | -$1,221 | -$1,075 | -$891 | -$737 |
| $145 (-10%) | -$755 | -$580 | -$337 | +$67 |
| $153 (-5%) | -$381 | -$195 | +$65 | +$600 |
| $158 (-2%) | -$197 | -$14 | +$236 | +$600 |
| $161 (0%) โ spot | -$91 | +$87 | +$324 | +$600 |
| $164 (+2%) | +$3 | +$175 | +$394 | +$600 |
| $170 (+6%) โ target | +$152 | +$306 | +$486 | +$600 |
| $177 (+10%) | +$280 | +$411 | +$545 | +$600 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$390 | +$491 | +$578 | +$600 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$464 | +$539 | +$592 | +$600 |