Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $750 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $95.0 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $780 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $67.8 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $750 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$4,280 (157.4%) on $2,720 risked, vs $-10,024 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 13.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $750. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $750 by Oct 16
+$4,280
+157.4% on $2,720 risked
Max Profit
+$4,280
If the stock โค $780 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,720
Net debit
Break-even
$822.80
-3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.81 / -7.55 / 6.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | +$2,569 | +$2,786 | +$3,252 | +$4,280 |
| $723 (-15%) | +$2,126 | +$2,274 | +$2,637 | +$4,280 |
| $750 (-12%) โ target | +$1,831 | +$1,923 | +$2,177 | +$4,280 |
| $765 (-10%) | +$1,665 | +$1,723 | +$1,905 | +$4,280 |
| $808 (-5%) | +$1,202 | +$1,161 | +$1,118 | +$1,507 |
| $833 (-2%) | +$929 | +$829 | +$648 | -$1,044 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | +$751 | +$612 | +$344 | -$2,720 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$576 | +$401 | +$51 | -$2,720 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$322 | +$95 | -$363 | -$2,720 |
| $935 (+10%) | -$78 | -$376 | -$969 | -$2,720 |
| $978 (+15%) | -$444 | -$795 | -$1,460 | -$2,720 |
| $1020 (+20%) | -$773 | -$1,159 | -$1,840 | -$2,720 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.