Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $810 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $850 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $130.7 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $810 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $84.45 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $810 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$4,988 (107.8%) on $4,625 risked, vs $-4,024 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 22.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $810. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $810 by Oct 16
+$4,988
+107.8% on $4,625 risked
Max Profit
+$4,884
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$3,232
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$932.37
+9.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.67 / 10.31 / 37.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | +$314 | +$619 | +$1,041 | +$943 |
| $723 (-15%) | +$358 | +$741 | +$1,378 | +$2,061 |
| $765 (-10%) | +$336 | +$763 | +$1,545 | +$3,531 |
| $810 (-5%) โ target | +$243 | +$678 | +$1,505 | +$5,473 |
| $833 (-2%) | +$169 | +$593 | +$1,397 | +$4,314 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | +$104 | +$514 | +$1,284 | +$3,533 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$32 | +$423 | +$1,145 | +$2,806 |
| $893 (+5%) | -$90 | +$264 | +$894 | +$1,813 |
| $935 (+10%) | -$323 | -$45 | +$392 | +$400 |
| $978 (+15%) | -$584 | -$394 | -$172 | -$742 |
| $1020 (+20%) | -$862 | -$766 | -$752 | -$1,651 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.