Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $950 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $102.5 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $950 by Oct 16: the long call returns $-250 (-2.4%) on $10,250 risked, vs +$9,976 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $950. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $950 by Oct 16
$-250
-2.4% on $10,250 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$10,250
Premium paid
Break-even
$952.50
+12.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.05 / -93.95 / 130.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | -$6,828 | -$8,096 | -$9,491 | -$10,250 |
| $723 (-15%) | -$5,418 | -$6,926 | -$8,760 | -$10,250 |
| $765 (-10%) | -$3,707 | -$5,413 | -$7,629 | -$10,250 |
| $808 (-5%) | -$1,700 | -$3,549 | -$6,040 | -$10,250 |
| $833 (-2%) | -$358 | -$2,263 | -$4,856 | -$10,250 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | +$591 | -$1,339 | -$3,972 | -$10,226 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$1,583 | -$363 | -$3,013 | -$8,526 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$3,149 | +$1,195 | -$1,443 | -$5,975 |
| $935 (+10%) | +$5,951 | +$4,024 | +$1,497 | -$1,724 |
| $950 (+12%) โ target | +$6,974 | +$5,068 | +$2,601 | -$250 |
| $978 (+15%) | +$8,972 | +$7,116 | +$4,784 | +$2,528 |
| $1020 (+20%) | +$12,186 | +$10,432 | +$8,348 | +$6,779 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.