Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $750 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $95.0 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $750 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$500 (5.3%) on $9,500 risked, vs $-10,024 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $750. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $750 by Oct 16
+$500
+5.3% on $9,500 risked
Max Profit
+$75,500
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$9,500
Premium paid
Break-even
$755.00
-11.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.51 / -80.99 / 130.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | +$10,318 | +$9,238 | +$8,041 | +$7,481 |
| $723 (-15%) | +$7,477 | +$6,156 | +$4,521 | +$3,230 |
| $750 (-12%) โ target | +$5,811 | +$4,357 | +$2,467 | +$500 |
| $765 (-10%) | +$4,936 | +$3,417 | +$1,400 | -$1,022 |
| $808 (-5%) | +$2,692 | +$1,031 | -$1,262 | -$5,273 |
| $833 (-2%) | +$1,483 | -$234 | -$2,628 | -$7,824 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | +$732 | -$1,011 | -$3,444 | -$9,500 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$24 | -$1,735 | -$4,186 | -$9,500 |
| $893 (+5%) | -$961 | -$2,728 | -$5,167 | -$9,500 |
| $935 (+10%) | -$2,410 | -$4,149 | -$6,478 | -$9,500 |
| $978 (+15%) | -$3,641 | -$5,310 | -$7,443 | -$9,500 |
| $1020 (+20%) | -$4,677 | -$6,245 | -$8,130 | -$9,500 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.