Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $940 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $850.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $810 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $84.45 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $940 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$531 (0.6%) on $93,469 risked, vs +$8,976 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $940. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $940 by Oct 16
+$531
+0.6% on $93,469 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$12,469
Put floors you at $810
Break-even
$934.69
+9.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.24 / -76.07 / 127.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | -$8,727 | -$9,941 | -$11,414 | -$12,469 |
| $723 (-15%) | -$7,073 | -$8,493 | -$10,362 | -$12,469 |
| $765 (-10%) | -$5,105 | -$6,675 | -$8,837 | -$12,469 |
| $808 (-5%) | -$2,838 | -$4,495 | -$6,810 | -$12,469 |
| $833 (-2%) | -$1,341 | -$3,021 | -$5,358 | -$10,145 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | -$289 | -$1,973 | -$4,298 | -$8,445 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$803 | -$875 | -$3,169 | -$6,745 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$2,515 | +$860 | -$1,354 | -$4,194 |
| $940 (+11%) โ target | +$5,900 | +$4,327 | +$2,339 | +$531 |
| $978 (+15%) | +$8,783 | +$7,305 | +$5,543 | +$4,309 |
| $1020 (+20%) | +$12,192 | +$10,839 | +$9,346 | +$8,560 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.