Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $980 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $102.5 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $95.0 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $980 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns $-6,750 (-34.2%) on $19,750 risked, vs +$12,976 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $980. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $980 by Oct 16
$-6,750
-34.2% on $19,750 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$19,750
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$1047.50
+23.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.55 / -174.93 / 261.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | +$3,490 | +$1,142 | -$1,450 | -$2,769 |
| $723 (-15%) | +$2,059 | -$770 | -$4,238 | -$7,020 |
| $765 (-10%) | +$1,229 | -$1,996 | -$6,229 | -$11,272 |
| $808 (-5%) | +$991 | -$2,518 | -$7,301 | -$15,523 |
| $833 (-2%) | +$1,125 | -$2,498 | -$7,484 | -$18,074 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | +$1,324 | -$2,350 | -$7,416 | -$19,726 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$1,608 | -$2,098 | -$7,200 | -$18,026 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$2,188 | -$1,533 | -$6,610 | -$15,475 |
| $935 (+10%) | +$3,540 | -$125 | -$4,981 | -$11,224 |
| $980 (+15%) โ target | +$5,436 | +$1,920 | -$2,521 | -$6,750 |
| $1020 (+20%) | +$7,509 | +$4,187 | +$218 | -$2,721 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.