Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 76.6% โ LOW
(-39.6% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $920 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $850.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $920 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $72.6 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $920 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$14,236 (18.3%) on $77,764 risked, vs +$6,976 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $920. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $920 by Oct 16
+$14,236
+18.3% on $77,764 risked
Max Profit
+$14,236
If the stock โฅ $920 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$77,764
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$777.64
-8.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.74 / 90.7 / -136.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | -$12,016 | -$10,993 | -$10,046 | -$9,745 |
| $723 (-15%) | -$8,810 | -$7,521 | -$6,152 | -$5,494 |
| $765 (-10%) | -$5,870 | -$4,330 | -$2,517 | -$1,242 |
| $808 (-5%) | -$3,207 | -$1,449 | +$776 | +$3,009 |
| $833 (-2%) | -$1,742 | +$124 | +$2,561 | +$5,560 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | -$821 | +$1,107 | +$3,665 | +$7,260 |
| $867 (+2%) | +$57 | +$2,039 | +$4,698 | +$8,960 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$1,296 | +$3,340 | +$6,116 | +$11,511 |
| $920 (+8%) โ target | +$2,517 | +$4,606 | +$7,455 | +$14,236 |
| $935 (+10%) | +$3,156 | +$5,261 | +$8,127 | +$14,236 |
| $978 (+15%) | +$4,777 | +$6,889 | +$9,725 | +$14,236 |
| $1020 (+20%) | +$6,177 | +$8,252 | +$10,957 | +$14,236 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.