Target Price Playground
STX
$1,066.26
๐ข
STX IV: 85.3% โ LOW
(-32.3% vs 30d avg of 126.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1150 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1066.26 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1150 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $134.1 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $1150 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$21,785 (23.4%) on $93,216 risked, vs +$8,375 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $106,626. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $1150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $1150 by Aug 21
+$21,785
+23.4% on $93,216 risked
Max Profit
+$21,785
If the stock โฅ $1150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$93,216
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$932.16
-12.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
49.82 / 132.73 / -179.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $853 (-20%) | -$12,434 | -$10,598 | -$8,783 | -$7,915 |
| $906 (-15%) | -$8,726 | -$6,545 | -$4,172 | -$2,584 |
| $960 (-10%) | -$5,322 | -$2,831 | +$82 | +$2,747 |
| $1013 (-5%) | -$2,223 | +$531 | +$3,918 | +$8,079 |
| $1045 (-2%) | -$507 | +$2,377 | +$5,999 | +$11,277 |
| $1066 (0%) โ spot | +$578 | +$3,537 | +$7,293 | +$13,410 |
| $1088 (+2%) | +$1,619 | +$4,642 | +$8,511 | +$15,543 |
| $1120 (+5%) | +$3,095 | +$6,196 | +$10,196 | +$18,741 |
| $1150 (+8%) โ target | +$4,409 | +$7,565 | +$11,644 | +$21,784 |
| $1173 (+10%) | +$5,342 | +$8,526 | +$12,637 | +$21,784 |
| $1226 (+15%) | +$7,338 | +$10,548 | +$14,646 | +$21,784 |
| $1280 (+20%) | +$9,102 | +$12,287 | +$16,267 | +$21,784 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.