Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $190 by Oct 16: the cash-secured put returns +$270 (1.7%) on $-270 credit (max loss $16,230), vs +$878 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$1,760 | -$1,726 | -$1,707 | -$1,732 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$1,070 | -$986 | -$885 | -$826 |
| $163 (-10%) | -$539 | -$423 | -$260 | +$80 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$175 | -$61 | +$90 | +$270 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$27 | +$72 | +$190 | +$270 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | +$47 | +$133 | +$226 | +$270 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$105 | +$178 | +$247 | +$270 |
| $190 (+5%) โ target | +$165 | +$219 | +$262 | +$270 |
| $199 (+10%) | +$227 | +$255 | +$269 | +$270 |
| $208 (+15%) | +$253 | +$266 | +$270 | +$270 |
| $217 (+20%) | +$264 | +$269 | +$270 | +$270 |