Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.22
๐ข
TMUS IV: 28.7% โ LOW
(-52.0% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.1 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $170 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.8 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $170 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$482 (66.1%) on $730 risked, vs $-1,122 (-6.2%) for 100 shares on $18,122. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $170 by Oct 16
+$482
+66.1% on $730 risked
Max Profit
+$458
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$729
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$177.96
-1.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.1 / -0.25 / 11.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$196 | +$210 | +$212 | +$199 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$171 | +$205 | +$240 | +$227 |
| $163 (-10%) | +$104 | +$152 | +$228 | +$323 |
| $170 (-6%) โ target | +$21 | +$66 | +$146 | +$483 |
| $172 (-5%) | -$10 | +$31 | +$105 | +$337 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$94 | -$68 | -$24 | +$19 |
| $181 (0%) โ spot | -$154 | -$140 | -$120 | -$154 |
| $185 (+2%) | -$215 | -$213 | -$218 | -$296 |
| $190 (+5%) | -$305 | -$319 | -$355 | -$458 |
| $199 (+10%) | -$438 | -$471 | -$529 | -$618 |
| $208 (+15%) | -$543 | -$580 | -$633 | -$690 |
| $217 (+20%) | -$617 | -$649 | -$687 | -$717 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.