Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $475 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $495 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.79 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $475 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$3,239 (256.8%) on $1,261 risked, vs $-6,526 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 21.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $475. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $475 by Oct 16
+$3,239
+256.8% on $1,261 risked
Max Profit
+$3,239
If the stock โค $495 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,261
Net debit
Break-even
$527.39
-2.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-25.1 / -1.66 / 21.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | +$2,800 | +$2,972 | +$3,166 | +$3,239 |
| $459 (-15%) | +$2,372 | +$2,575 | +$2,905 | +$3,239 |
| $475 (-12%) โ target | +$2,043 | +$2,225 | +$2,568 | +$3,239 |
| $486 (-10%) | +$1,781 | +$1,929 | +$2,230 | +$3,239 |
| $513 (-5%) | +$1,104 | +$1,126 | +$1,172 | +$1,414 |
| $529 (-2%) | +$699 | +$638 | +$501 | -$206 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | +$442 | +$332 | +$94 | -$1,261 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$201 | +$51 | -$258 | -$1,261 |
| $567 (+5%) | -$123 | -$313 | -$665 | -$1,261 |
| $594 (+10%) | -$554 | -$756 | -$1,053 | -$1,261 |
| $621 (+15%) | -$849 | -$1,018 | -$1,203 | -$1,261 |
| $648 (+20%) | -$1,035 | -$1,154 | -$1,248 | -$1,261 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.