Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $540 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.51 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $510 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $510 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,560 (67.6%) on $2,306 risked, vs $-3,026 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 12.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $510. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $510 by Oct 16
+$1,560
+67.6% on $2,306 risked
Max Profit
+$1,491
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,294
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$536.98
-0.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.6 / 0.65 / 36.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | +$504 | +$553 | +$564 | +$498 |
| $459 (-15%) | +$443 | +$552 | +$669 | +$620 |
| $486 (-10%) | +$275 | +$425 | +$666 | +$958 |
| $510 (-6%) โ target | +$30 | +$173 | +$432 | +$1,561 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$225 | -$121 | +$63 | +$384 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | -$380 | -$307 | -$189 | -$155 |
| $551 (+2%) | -$542 | -$502 | -$456 | -$614 |
| $567 (+5%) | -$785 | -$796 | -$852 | -$1,159 |
| $594 (+10%) | -$1,172 | -$1,252 | -$1,417 | -$1,753 |
| $621 (+15%) | -$1,503 | -$1,619 | -$1,809 | -$2,063 |
| $648 (+20%) | -$1,763 | -$1,883 | -$2,047 | -$2,209 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.