Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.3 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$3,470 (98.3%) on $3,530 risked, vs +$6,974 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 7.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $610. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16
+$3,470
+98.3% on $3,530 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,530
Premium paid
Break-even
$575.30
+6.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.7 / -27.33 / 83.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$3,384 | -$3,482 | -$3,527 | -$3,530 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$3,124 | -$3,340 | -$3,501 | -$3,530 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$2,603 | -$2,971 | -$3,353 | -$3,530 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$1,729 | -$2,229 | -$2,861 | -$3,530 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$1,011 | -$1,561 | -$2,290 | -$3,530 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | -$450 | -$1,016 | -$1,773 | -$3,504 |
| $551 (+2%) | +$174 | -$393 | -$1,146 | -$2,423 |
| $567 (+5%) | +$1,222 | +$676 | -$18 | -$803 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$3,234 | +$2,766 | +$2,246 | +$1,899 |
| $610 (+13%) โ target | +$4,528 | +$4,118 | +$3,703 | +$3,470 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$5,504 | +$5,135 | +$4,787 | +$4,600 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$7,952 | +$7,673 | +$7,441 | +$7,301 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.