Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $475 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $475 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$4,260 (190.2%) on $2,240 risked, vs $-6,526 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 15.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $475. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $475 by Oct 16
+$4,260
+190.2% on $2,240 risked
Max Profit
+$51,760
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,240
Premium paid
Break-even
$517.60
-4.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.13 / -19.23 / 83.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | +$8,314 | +$8,335 | +$8,415 | +$8,539 |
| $459 (-15%) | +$5,873 | +$5,776 | +$5,741 | +$5,838 |
| $475 (-12%) โ target | +$4,560 | +$4,376 | +$4,223 | +$4,260 |
| $486 (-10%) | +$3,692 | +$3,443 | +$3,187 | +$3,137 |
| $513 (-5%) | +$1,865 | +$1,483 | +$978 | +$435 |
| $529 (-2%) | +$962 | +$532 | -$71 | -$1,185 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | +$442 | -$4 | -$635 | -$2,240 |
| $551 (+2%) | -$15 | -$462 | -$1,089 | -$2,240 |
| $567 (+5%) | -$586 | -$1,013 | -$1,582 | -$2,240 |
| $594 (+10%) | -$1,276 | -$1,625 | -$2,020 | -$2,240 |
| $621 (+15%) | -$1,707 | -$1,957 | -$2,180 | -$2,240 |
| $648 (+20%) | -$1,960 | -$2,120 | -$2,226 | -$2,240 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.