Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $470 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.55 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $430 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.55 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $415 by Oct 16: the bear put spread returns +$1,800 (81.8%) on $2,200 risked, vs $-5,405 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 7.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $415 by Oct 16
+$1,800
+81.8% on $2,200 risked
Max Profit
+$1,800
If the stock โค $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,200
Net debit
Break-even
$448.00
-4.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.72 / -5.53 / 3.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | +$838 | +$965 | +$1,236 | +$1,800 |
| $399 (-15%) | +$580 | +$668 | +$883 | +$1,800 |
| $415 (-12%) โ target | +$393 | +$447 | +$593 | +$1,800 |
| $422 (-10%) | +$310 | +$347 | +$458 | +$1,800 |
| $446 (-5%) | +$40 | +$19 | -$2 | +$240 |
| $460 (-2%) | -$120 | -$176 | -$277 | -$1,167 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | -$225 | -$303 | -$455 | -$2,105 |
| $478 (+2%) | -$327 | -$427 | -$626 | -$2,200 |
| $493 (+5%) | -$476 | -$605 | -$868 | -$2,200 |
| $516 (+10%) | -$710 | -$880 | -$1,220 | -$2,200 |
| $539 (+15%) | -$922 | -$1,124 | -$1,503 | -$2,200 |
| $563 (+20%) | -$1,113 | -$1,334 | -$1,719 | -$2,200 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.